The New World of Wireless Data - @ CTIA 2009

Am back in the wireless data services world and have started travelling internationally again after a gap. It has been interesting to watch the wireless space without being involved in it on a day to day basis for the last couple of years. Am now back to working on it, building out a new set of ideas in the space.
Visited the CTIA show at Las Vegas, 1st - 3rd April. Several changes in the representation and thrust at CTIA since my last visit there in 2003. The Wireless World is one industry that seems to have weathered the storms of the recession in the US, with new innovations and aggressive roll-out of new Wireless Data Services. Many even hope that the wireless industry in the US will be the catalyst to pull the US out of the recession!

Here is some data and impressions from this year's CTIA Wireless Show:

• Focus is on devices and native applications -
• Apple, RIM are giving the US an edge over Europe through their iPhone and Blackberry Devices
• Appstores from each of the device vendors is the hot (new) business concept to help app vendors advertise, help consumers discover their application and distribute and deploy them – Has removed the carrier from the equation
• The CDMA vs GSM and complicated interdependencies in delivering Mobile Data Services and SMS has gone away in the US; GSM (T-Mobile) and 3G availability in the US has simplified the space
• WAP and other Mobile Browsers are not the only way to access the Mobile Internet anymore – their noise was drowned; Only Opera had a presence with their Opera Mini and other browsers
• Its not just Java in the device world anymore; J2ME is not the only force – iPhone Objective-C, Google Android, Blackberry JDE
• Native Device applications are growing rapidly – focused, rich GUI vertical applications rather than a browser to access “content”
• The Three Screens convergence – TV, PC and Mobile screens convergence – Microsoft – Connected Entertainment, Envivio is making a big push for this
• Windows Mobile 6.5 and PCs will be soon be shipped with Embedded 3G
• Nokia is losing ground – no longer prima donna of the industry – is late in launching its AppStore (OVi); No path breaking devices or concepts anymore
• US companies have wrested the lead on MDS from European companies
• Asian Device vendors are taking the lead alongwith iPhone and Blackberry – Samsung and LG are way ahead of the competition in hi-tech phones and new device concepts. Some neat phones with transparent keyboards, image projectors, mobile TV and other features.
• Asian Vendors - Don't talk applications at all though!! Except HTC, the guys from Taiwan who have tied up with Google for Android and made breakthroughs through Android’s Application Marketplace
• Google has made its presence felt in the wireless world through Android – not a force yet, but will be one when they integrate it with Google Maps (already done), Search Anywhere, etc.
• The Middleware guys are gone – Only a token presence thru Oracle, Sybase, etc. HP, IBM and others are not talking much mobility anymore
• MapQuest, Navteq, etc. are making Location Based Services happen – privacy fears for tracking and map assistance type applications seem to have reduced
• All application vendors seem to be “behind” the device guys – RIM, Nokia, Apple (not present at CTIA) as opposed to with the middleware or network equipment vendors like HP, Oracle, TIBCO, etc. earlier
• Microsoft Mobile devices are finally there, many device vendors have it on their devices
• The Finland and DoCoMo Buzz has reduced substantially!! DoCoMo still leads with the best applications deployed by a carrier though
• USSD and SIM Card based application vendors – couple of companies from Europe still had these – mainly for banking and operator based applications (pre-paid topup, balance enquiry) in Europe
• A couple of Unified Messaging Platforms and Companies were around – but look more like the Mobile Middleware guys of Y2000-2002
• Chinese companies have made an entry with their Antennas, Radio Equipment, Huawei and cheap mobile phones without the IMEI numbers!!
• The Ringtone Buzz is dead – but its still an industry (even if on its last legs) - Will slowly get replaced by stereo quality music, virtual radio-stations, etc.
• Greenphones – concept phones with green materials (LG), Solar Cells, Green Towers (that look like trees!)
• Recycled Phones, Retrofitted phones, sold at 30-50% discounts – Reverse Logistics to collect discarded and non-functional phones, fix and sell them along with regular phones at retail locations -

Back to Blogging...and the Mobile World

Have been off Blogging for a while, with a wireless network connection and a virus infected PC that made it a chore to even check email. Staying for a few months in the rural part of Pune (though its just 5 mins from the airport) the only connection I have had to the net is the one from Reliance. Like their adverts, No Regular Power, No Landlines, but a wireless network. Here I am back to blogging and to the Mobile Data Services (MDS) world from which I have been on a sabbatical the last couple of years.

After spending a couple of years with Organic Food, Waste Matters and Green Architecture (which I will continue following, more about these exciting areas in the next few weeks) I am back doing a few things in the world of MDS, that I started in 1997. Catching up with whats happening in the MDS world, its been heartwarming and a vindication of Peter Drucker's maxim, "The short term effect of a new technology is often over-estimated, and the long term impact often underestimated". Its been exactly that, some of the things that we did in 99/2000 and again in 2005, seem to be getting adapted now. With 10M+ new mobile subscribers being added each month in India and GPRS/EDGE finally becoming commonplace, its now ready to happen (the long term impact). Catching up with some friends from around the world on the MDS scene of the last 2 years, here's what I have gathered:

• Telecom industry is still doing well, in spite of the global recession, especially in the Asia/APAC region. Globally voice revenues are drying up, with almost all carriers down to all you can eat voice packages and without much ground left for any innovation.
• Walled Gardens are collapsing - Operators (as some of them liked to be called now as opposed to carriers) have dismantled their walled gardens. They couldn't manage them any longer, but don't be mistaken that they will become dumb pipes! They still own the customer relationship with the mobile phone user. However they are now allowing the mobile internet to happen!
• Mobile Broadband is happening - Many new broadband connections are now wireless. My own Reliance Netconnect was the only way I could get on to the net. Convenience of buying a dongle and getting onto the net in less than an hour and better internet speeds are powering laptops to get onto the net from anywhere. Wireless LAN still needs hot spots and its not quite easy to get onto the net from anywhere. As handsets turn into computers, laptops are becoming more like mobile phones and mobile phone users are getting used to accessing the Internet wirelessly!
• High End devices are becoming commonplace - At less than 15% of the device market, seems to be very small right now, but some of these smart phones and devices like the iPhone will be commonplace in the next two years, much like most basic phones became camera phones over the last two.
• Appstores are changing deployment models - Apple AppStore and the ones launched by RIM, Nokia and Microsoft are finally providing application developers a way to deploy their applications and distribute them. Seems to be a cumbersome process, with application signing, licensing, etc. - but still a more sure way for application developers to release their applications to the devices they are intended for and popularize and monetize them. According to the Economist most iPhone users in the US have spent at least $100 on mobile applications since it was launched.
• Its not just Ring Tones anymore - Mobile users seem to have gone past downloading ring tones. They are now downloading applications for their devices and enterprises are beginning to deploy domain specific applications for their employees and customers. Banking, Golf, Retail and Travel applications with richer interfaces than those provided by Mobile Browsers are bringing in the wow factor to these applications. More than 500 million application downloads from Apple's AppStore since its launch in July '08!
• Mobile Browser vs Native Applications - This debate although still raging, is slowly being won by the richness of Native Applications on devices like the iPhone. Inability of browsers to exploit the richness of the technical interfaces provided by native device environments and to access Contact Books, arrived SMSes, Calendars on the device is tipping the scales in its favour. No wonder, Google invested in Android a OS platform for mobile devices rather than a better mobile browser technology.
• Nokia losing ground (in high end devices) - the company that delivered Finland, elegant, functional mobile phones and smart messaging to the world has for the last 7+ years held a 40% market share. With the advent of smart phones from others like RIM and Apple, they are losing ground in high end devices.
• GPS and Google maps are facilitating Location Based Services . Some of the privacy concerns about giving away location that had inhibited the adoption of LBS seem to have reduced since location is now given out to/by GPS satellites instead of carrier networks.

In India, wireless operators are still flexing their muscles with their adhoc support to MDS, their predatory pricing and arbitrary disconnections of Aggregators! Hopefully its their last hurrah before they finally make way for the wireless internet!

Here's looking forward to all computing devices becoming wireless, high end devices becoming cheaper, 3G coming to India soon after the elections and the catching up of MDS with the amazing proliferation of mobile voice services in India.